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Psyche

Sex, Age, and Caste: The Ultimate Macrohistories?

Lawrence Taub


Macrohistories can be pigeon-holed in many ways. They fall into two clearly distinguishable types: those that describe recurring patterns that repeat throughout all or part of history, and those that describe a single program of history that happens only once, in one big, broad, one-way-flowing series of stages, that covers all of history, with no stage ever repeating itself. The first type gets you thinking like the author of Ecclesiastes, who stressed that "there is nothing [really] new under the sun." The second type leads you to believe the opposite -- that every moment is a first-time, unique event.

Macrohistories that fall into Type One include those of Toynbee, P. R. Sarkar, traditional Hinduism, and various economists' descriptions of economic boom and bust. Type Two macrohistories include those of Comte, Marx and Engels, Alvin Toffler, Ken Wilber, feminist macrohistorians Shulamith Firestone and Riane Eisler, and Western religious traditions (Judaism, Christianity, Islam). The three macrohistories I present here are Type-Two types.

The macrohistorical approach to futures activity is important as it firmly deals with the often-heard criticism that most ideas about futures studies reflect a Western-biased, U.S.-Eurocentric view of the world. Effective macrohistories are just as often the anonymous products of the deep wisdom of non-Western, non-modern cultures as they are the brainchildren of noted Western (or non-Western) scholars or thinkers.

The three macrohistories -- or models, as I call them -- presented in this essay, though filtered through the mind of a semi-Western non-scholar (myself), have their origins in the anonymous wisdom of three cultures, two of which are Eastern. They reflect, I would say, the striven-for cultural impartiality. I will feel that this goal is achieved if Eastern futures people accuse this presentation of being Ameri-Eurocentric while Western ones accuse it of flaky "new-age" Easternism.

What about prediction, or anticipating concrete future directions with a degree of meaningful and useful accuracy? Can macrohistories do that too? Well, yes, I feel -- if the macrohistory in question deals with a deep-enough structural level of history. If it doesn't, you are safer going to your local fortune-teller than to a macrohistorian. But I'll get to that in the next few paragraphs.

 

Predetermined

The deeper levels of history are predetermined and set the parameters within which we can exercise our free will as freely as those parameters allow.

"The future is unpredictable." You hear that often in popular circles and media. But this "truism" is far from true. For though history has surface structures, the events and trends we see on the 6 o'clock news or read about in the morning paper, it also has deep structures, basic underlying trends which are "programmed" into history. These are easy to predict once we understand what they are, and they help us to predict a lot about surface trends as well.

Maybe two examples of deep structures not directly connected with history will make this clear: the human body and the life cycle.

What people do with their bodies -- and minds -- is basically unpredictable. But almost everyone has the same "predictable" body: Before a person is born, we know in advance that he or she will have either a female or male body, two eyes, two ears, one head, no tail, etc.

The life cycle is another deep structure. We can predict that everyone will go from birth, to infancy, to childhood, to adulthood, etc., in that order. Never once in human history has a person been an old man or woman before they were a child. (I may be the only exception to this rule.) What a person does during these stages, however, the surface structure is of course pretty unpredictable.

History has the same kind of deep structures. Here I'll discuss three of them, which I call models: the Age Model, the Sex Model, and the Caste Model.

I stumbled on these models, actually, macrohistories, and started matching them up to history as we are familiar with it. They naturally led to making forecasts based on them. But the forecasts seemed so crazy at the time, 1975, that I said, "such things could never happen," and discarded the whole idea.

But then surprising events happened exactly according to the models: religious revolution in Iran, Anwar Sadat's trip to Israel, intense US-Japan trade friction, and others. So I let my intuitions go all the way with the models -- "crazy" predictions and all -- which led to the writing of The Spiritual Imperative: Sex, Age, and the Last Caste (which covers the models in detail).

Not only do the models seem to explain history more clearly, simply, orderly, and convincingly than other macrohistories, but they also, judging by events and trends of the last 26 years, seem to correctly predict.

This essay contains only the broad outlines of the models, concentrating on the most interesting of the three, the Caste Model. Because of this, some of the forecasts may seem far-fetched and not deducible from the general principles of the models.



 

The Age Model

Growing Up

The Age Model is the idea that the life of humanity as a whole evolves parallel to the life of a single person. That is, we can divide history into at least six stages in the development of human consciousness, each of which corresponds to a stage in the life cycle of any individual.

Stage 1 I call the No-Center-Yet stage. It was early humanity up to about 250,000 years ago. Humans were still part of Nature. This stage corresponds to the Newborn Infant, when the baby is unconscious of itself as a separate individual.

Stage 2 was the magical-prehistoric stage of animism or "Nature-worship," the Self-is-the-Center stage, from 250,000 years ago to c.10,000 BC. Each tribe saw itself as the center of the world. This corresponds to Infancy, when the baby sees itself as the center of the world, the narcissistic stage.

Stage 3, the Mother-is-the-Center stage, was when the first civilizations arose, based on agriculture and worship of the Great Earth Mother Goddess. It lasted from c.10,000 to 2000 BC. It corresponds to Early Childhood, when the baby sees its mother as the center of the world.

Stage 4 was the Father-is-the-Center stage. Worship switched to God, the Father in Heaven, male gods, saviors, and divine kings like the Japanese Emperor. It lasted from c.2000 BC until the European Renaissance and the Enlightenment of the 16th-17th centuries. It corresponds to Late Childhood and Early Teenage, when the child sees its father as the center of its life.

Stage 5 is the rejection of God-the-Father, the age of revolution and democracy, communism, and other ideologies. It started in c.1650 and still continues. It corresponds to Middle and Late Teenage, when the teenager rebels against the father and parental authority in general. It's the Uncentered stage.


The Future of Religion and the Question of Survival

That's where we are now in history, with the human race about 19 years old. Which brings us to the future.

The next stage (6) is the worship of God-Within, God as one's deeper Self. This corresponds to Adulthood. One is one's own authority, self-reliant, autonomous. I call this the Centered Self stage.

When I say that humanity is 19, I mean that this is the age of the powerful or leading countries -- the US, Russia, Western Europe. Most countries are "younger," a few older: the socially advanced countries such as the Netherlands and Scandinavia. They are 23 to 25 years old.

What does this help us "predict"?

First, the future religion. We are moving away from the worship of Nature, Mother Earth, or Father in Heaven, and beyond Rebellion against these through secularism, communism, capitalism, and materialism -- the "religions" of our childhood and adolescence -- to adult religion. That is, to finding God within, inside the Self, listening to the Inner Voice.

Second, we can predict the chances of human survival in the face of nuclear and environmental destruction or overpopulation. They are the same chances that the normal adolescent has, to come through the storms and conflicts of adolescence and to make it to adulthood. I think only 1-2% do not make it. But since most countries are still "adolescent," a great deal of destruction and conflict still lie ahead. It gets worse before it gets better.



 

The Sex Model

The War Between the Sexes

"The division yin and yang pervades all culture, history, economics, nature itself; modern Western versions of sex discrimination are only the most recent layer."

-- Shulamith Firestone (founding feminist), The Dialectic of Sex.

 

This model, stated simply, is: Humanity evolves according to a sexual dialectic from Female to Male to Androgynous.

Based on the Chinese idea that all things are a balance between yin, the female principle, and yang, the male principle, the model tells us that the human race evolves through three sexual ages of history. To make this really clear I should define these terms in detail, as I do in my book, but here brevity must prevail!

The first age was the Yin, or Female Age. It corresponds to the prehistoric period, when humanity lived with a world view that we traditionally associate with the female principle: in harmony with, close to, attached to nature, the environment, the group; subjective; weak in ego, individuality, and self-assertion; self-sacrificing; having a sense of the world as being completely alive; holistic; relating to the world through feeling and emotional involvement; the heart.

This age was followed by the Yang, Male Age. It corresponds to the entire historical period, from the Patriarchal Revolution at the Dawn of History (c.2000 BC) until today. So it's the whole period of male supremacy and class society. Humans developed the features of the male principle: detachment from the environment and nature; objective; a strong ego, individuality and self-assertion; a sense of the world as being non-living matter governed by impersonal laws and divided into parts; classifying, analyzing; measuring; thinking rationally and scientifically; mental and intellectual; wanting to conquer, exploit and change nature, the environment, other people; the mind.

Sexual Division of the World into East and West

At the Dawn of History, the start of the Yang Age, the world split sexually into East and West. The yang worldview developed further in the West than in the East, reaching its peak with Western science and high technology.

Jerusalem, the focus of Western religion and culture -- especially of the very male-toned Judaism, Christianity, and Islam -- became the world's yang-male pole; Varanasi (Benares), the focus of Eastern world religions and culture (Hinduism and Buddhism, which are more female in character), became its yin-female pole. That is, Eastern culture stayed closer to humanity's prehistoric yin origins, and did not become yang enough, while Western culture suppressed most of its female "roots" and became too yang.

Yangness also developed further among men than women, in the cities than in the countryside, and in the upper classes than in the lower.


Our Androgynous Future

What does the Sex Model say about the future? The future is the third, Androgynous Age: an integrated, even balance of yin and yang. It brings back the yin without dropping the yang. So anything that in the past was either too yang or too yin will become sexually balanced.

The recent movements and trends that reflect this will continue. The West will continue to see a revival of subjectivity, feelings, reliance on hunches and intuition; holism, harmony with nature, ecology, animal rights; the elimination of excessive or all meat-eating; the end of sport hunting and cruel sports; integration of Eastern and Western religions and culture; the disappearance of sex roles, sexual inequality, and class structure; looking at the big picture and synthesizing instead of just analyzing; emphasis on cooperation, less on competition and confrontation; acceptance of homosexuality; etc. In the East, of course, the trends will continue in the opposite, yang direction in the relevant areas.

The new androgyny will especially affect the role of women in politics and society, and sexual-love relationships between the sexes.

In the near-future, early Androgynous Age, women will outnumber men as heads of state and in upper political echelons -- especially in the most yang, Islamic countries. This is in equal reaction to men having dominated politics for so long during the Yang Age. But in the long run, both sexes will share high political positions roughly equally.


No Longer Too Yang To Really Be In Love -- Peace Between the Sexes At Last?

Regarding sex, affection, and love, we notice that men and women, in the Yang Age, developed opposite sexual styles: Men tended to be sexually detached: Even when strongly "in love," they became attracted to many women sexually, and would act on this if given the chance. Women, conversely, after sex with a man, tended to get emotionally attached to him even when not really "in love" with him, and felt a need to avoid sex with other men even when attracted to them.

These opposite tendencies reflect the basic yin and yang difference. Women, being more yin than yang, get attached to their environment, in this case, a male partner. Men, in their leaning toward the yang, stay detached from it, in this case, a series of female partners. In gay society, the more yang and more yin partners reflect the same tendencies, respectively, as in the straight world.

But as both men and women become more androgynous, they will combine the two styles: both sexes will combine sexual partnership with sexual variety, that is, deep sexual-love relationships together with sex with more than one person. Brought up as we are at the tail end of the Yang Age, this is hard for us to imagine. But our androgynous grandchildren will easily carry this off.

 

The Caste Model

 

The Spiral of History

The Caste Model originates in India. It is derived from -- but in important ways differs from -- the traditional Hindu philosophy of caste, which was also the theory behind the notorious caste system. That caste philosophy, together with the Hindu cosmology, forms the Hindu (macrohistorical, to be sure) philosophy of history. But, as sI aid, Indian culture is yinnish, and so thinks of history as cyclical. To correct this yin bias, I interpret the original Hindu philosophy with a Western-yang, linear twist to make it androgynous and more correct in relation to how it actually unfolded in history.

The Caste Model, like its Hindu prototype, says that there are 4 main castes in the world. Everyone has features of all four, but usually the features of one predominate. That is the caste a person "belongs" to. These 4 castes are:

1. The religious or spiritual caste -- the brahmans

2. The warrior caste -- the kshattriyas

3. The merchant caste -- the vaishvas

4. The worker caste -- the shudras

 

Each caste rules the world in turn, in the above order, taking power from the caste before it through "caste struggle."

What does "a caste rules the world" mean? It means that during the Age (yuga, in Sanskrit) a particular caste rules:

Its leaders or top class are the world's ruling elite;

Its worldview and spirit are the dominant ones worldwide;

And the tools, skills, and institutions that develop most in that Age are connected with that caste.

Then, at the end of the last, Worker Age, the kaliyuga in Sanskrit, after all 4 castes have ruled, the spiritual-religious brahman caste takes power again: the world experiences spiritual rebirth, and a second Spiritual-Religious Age starts.

So history actually consists of only 5 ages:

Spiritual-Religious Age (No.1) -- Satyayuga 1

Warrior Age -- Tretayuga

Merchant Age -- Dvaparayuga

Worker Age -- Kaliyuga

Spiritual-Religious Age (No.2) -- Satyayuga 2

 

In my East-West androgynous interpretation, this "cycle" occurs only once, covering all of human history. That is, Spiritual-Religious Age No.1 was the transition from animal to human life, while Spiritual-Religious Age No.2 will be the transition from human to superhuman life -- a step up in evolution and the beginning of a new, you might say, "post-human" cycle. In other words, unlike the original Hindu view of history as endlessly repeating cycles, human history, consisting of only one single cycle, thus forms a spiral.

 

Smaller Patterns in the Bigger Picture

If we look back over the history of this caste struggle, that is, over history itself, we see that it has many different patterns. One is that these caste ages get shorter and shorter except for the two spiritual-religious ages, which are very long.

But the most important pattern is that a caste struggles to top power through three distinctly different stages:

The first is the pioneering stage. This stage unfolds in the world's main power centers, where the ruling caste rules from. During this stage, the rising caste organizes itself and sets up pockets of power and opposition to the ruling caste. But it does not actually rule anywhere yet.

The second stage is the revolutionary-evolutionary stage. Here the rising caste takes power in some countries, usually outside the main centers of world power, in "backward" countries, through revolution.

These revolutionary countries become new great powers that now challenge the established great powers, the countries from which the old caste still rules the world.

But at the same time, the rising caste takes power in these established main power centers, the world's leading countries, as well, but by evolution, not revolution.

The third and last stage in a caste's rise is the peak stage. In this stage the rising caste is at the height of its power and rules the world -- but is also ripe for falling. This stage unfolds in those countries that have evolved to be most in tune with the spirit and worldview of that caste. These countries most "belong" to the caste, and become the great powers of that caste age.

Since the castes are in struggle, these three stages overlap: While one caste is at its peak, the one behind it is in its revolutionary-evolutionary stage, while the caste behind that one is pioneering.

This process tells us -- this is important! -- that countries belonging to the falling caste, though the great powers of the moment, lose world power to the countries belonging to the new, rising caste. That is, the Caste Model explains why great powers rose and fell in the past, and helps predict which countries will rise and fall in the future.

This will become clear as we now look at each caste age, yuga, in turn.


Spiritual-Religious Age No.1

The Spiritual-Religious Age No.1 was all of prehistory and the following period in which the great world religions developed: Zoroastrianism, Hinduism, Judaism, Buddhism, Christianity, and Islam.


Warrior Age

The following Warrior Age was the period of military monarchy, that is, ancient and medieval history, from about 4000 BC to the 16th, early 17th centuries.

The ruling elite was the top of the warrior caste: the kings, emperors, nobility, leading samurai, etc. The dominant worldview was the love of warfare, heroism, armed combat, machismo. Today's pre-industrial Third World countries still live in this age, which is why military cliques and monarchs still have the main power in these countries, and why they easily go to war with each other or internally to solve problems.

The last great powers of that Warrior Age, marking the warrior caste's peak stage in the 16th century, were Spain, Portugal, the Hapsburg and Ottoman Empires, Ming China, and Mogul India.


Merchant Age

The Merchant Age was the period of entrepreneurial capitalism, from about 1650 until the mid-20th century. The world ruling elite was the top of the merchant caste: the leading financiers and pre-industrial mercantile traders and (later) industrial entrepreneurs: the Mellons, Rockefellers, Carnegies, Morgans, Moritas, Hondas, etc.

The dominant worldview was the pursuit of money and wealth through trade, business, industry, and mercantile imperialism.

Skipping over the pioneering stage, the revolutionary-evolutionary stage of the merchant caste rise to power unfolded roughly from 1600 to the 1860s. During this stage, all the revolutions were merchant-caste, so-called "bourgeois" revolutions. The most important, in order of occurrence, were the Dutch revolution against Spain, the British Civil War of the 1640s, the American Revolution, the French Revolution, and, from the early 1860s to early 1870s, the unification of Germany and Italy, Japan's Meiji Restoration, and the US Civil War. These revolutions eventually made all these countries great powers.

Meanwhile, in those countries without such revolutions -- Austria-Hungary, Spain, Portugal, etc. -- the merchant-caste bourgeoisie also took power, but by evolution rather than revolution.

The peak stage of the Merchant Age was the period before, during, and after World War II. If you remember, the peak stage of a caste's rise to power takes place in those countries that evolve to be most in tune with the worldview of that caste. The worldview of the merchant caste is the pursuit of money and wealth. So, since the US developed to be most in tune with that worldview, it became the top world power during this stage.


Worker Age

The Worker Age is the present period of communism (state capitalism) and welfare-state, socialist, social-democratic, and big-corporate capitalism. It stretches from the beginning of the 20th century to about 2030 AD. So from here the Caste Model takes us into the future.

The main worldview of this age and ruling caste, the worker caste, is devotion to and identification with one's work, job, expertise, profession, or company: the idolatry of Work.

The ruling elite, the top of the worker caste, is Milovan Djilas' "new class" and what John Galbraith and Theodore Roszak call the technostructure or something similar. In the still-socialist countries, it consists of the top levels of the Communist Party, the government, the military, and industry. In the capitalist countries it's the top managers of the big corporations, governments, and labor organizations.

The worker caste's revolutionary-evolutionary stage lasted from 1917 to about 1979. During this period, the nature of revolution changed from "bourgeois" merchant-caste to "socialist" revolution. Countries which had such revolutions, especially the Soviet Union and China, became new great powers.


The Near Future -- The Peak Stage of the Worker Age

Now we are entering the peak stage of the worker caste's rise, which will last until about 2030. This stage will have two important features. The first is that the world will continue to divide itself up into blocs -- both in the industrialized North and in the mainly Third World South. The second feature is that the North will continue to be more powerful than the South, and will divide itself into 3 gigantic blocs, competing with but also collaborating with each other.

The bloc, or multinational union, replaces imperialism in this Worker Age. Space is too limited here to explain why and how this happens, and which countries will join which blocs, but these are treated at length in my book.

1. Confucio: The most powerful bloc in the North, thus in the world, will be one that I call Confucio. It will consist of the neighboring countries that share the Confucian tradition and other features -- Japan, China, Taiwan, and North and South Korea reunified into a single Korea.

 Confucio will be the world's top power because, following the pattern for peak stages I mentioned earlier, these countries, strongly influenced by their common Confucian tradition, will be those most in tune with the worker-caste world view of devotion to work, job, expertise, and company.

2. Europa: The second most powerful bloc in the North and world will be Europa. Europa will be an expansion of the European Union to include all of Eastern Europe, including the three Baltics, but not Russia, the other ex-Soviet republics, and perhaps not Switzerland nor Scandinavia.

3. Polario: The third most powerful bloc in the world will be Polario. Polario will consist of the United States, Canada, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Georgia, possibly Mexico, and probably all 5 Scandinavian countries.

I call this bloc Polario because it mainly comprises the four giant countries and regions that neighbor each other around the North Pole.

I put this bloc as third and last in the Northern power hierarchy because, of the three Northern blocs, except for Canada and Scandinavia, it will be the least in tune with the worker-caste worldview of devotion to Work. For it will be the most held back by outdated merchant-caste traditions related to devotion to the pursuit of individual money and wealth.


Spiritual-Religious Age No. 2

This age, already started, will last beyond the 21st century. Its dominant world view, as its name implies, will be religious and spiritual. This means both a return to religion in its old established forms as well as the development of spirituality and mysticism outside established religions.

Eventually, established and fundamentalist religions and sects will become less fundamentalist and more generally spiritual. The Age and Sex Models explain the reasons for this:

(1) Today's established religions come down from humanity's childhood and adolescence, and from its Yin and Yang Ages. But the religion of the future, the two models tell us, will be adult and androgynous. That is, all religions will become individualistic God-Within oriented, and will not visualize God as either man or woman. So, as Sri Aurobindo said, "The Age of Religion is over; Spirituality is the future of religion."

(2) As the Sex Model implies, feminist revolution, particularly the increasingly leading role women and feministic men will play within established religions, will set even their most fundamentalist sects in the direction of this adult, androgynous spirituality. Fundamentalism and extreme orthodoxy are based on male supremacy, the repression of the female principle, and religious leadership either by bearded male patriarchs or by clean-shaven men with strong patriarchal tendencies. Fundamentalism and female top leadership are contradictions that cannot coexist. So, as women take over leadership of even the most fundamentalist religious denominations, as they will continue to be determined to do, they subtly de-fundamentalize and spiritualize them.

The world ruling elite, the top of the spiritual-religious caste, will include traditional religious leaders, gurus, mullahs, rabbis, etc., but also people outside established religion who are considered spiritual. Fakes and charlatans will be among both types.

Despite this elite, this age coincides with the Sex Model's Androgynous Age. So it marks the end of power hierarchies, class structures, and male supremacy: Gradually, the distinction between ruling elite and rank and file, leaders and followers, will flatten out and disappear.


The Three Stages of the Rise of the Spiritual-Religious Caste

Now let's look at the actual past and future "history" of this age -- its 3 stages:

Pioneering Stage of the Spiritual-Religious Age

The pioneering stage of the new spiritual-religious caste's rise, which lasted from the 1950s through the 1970s, featured, on one side, the appearance of the counterculture: beatniks, hippies, the human potentials movement, transpersonal theory, etc. On the other side it featured masses of people being "born again" into established religions and fundamentalist sects, or joining new religions, Eastern religions or paths, and guru-led new-age groups.

Revolutionary-Evolutionary Stage

The revolutionary-evolutionary stage of the new spiritual-religious caste's rise to power started in 1979 with the Islamic Revolution in Iran. Lasting for the next 30-40 years, it overlaps with the peak stage of the Worker Age.

During this time, the nature of revolution changes again, this time from socialist/communist to religious revolution. Afghanistan was/is the latest example.

Religious revolutions will happen in countries within what I call the Religious Belt. This belt stretches from Bangladesh, Tibet, and Bhutan in the East, west across India and the Islamic heartland, Israel, across North Africa to Morocco.

But at the same time as some of these countries experience religious revolution, the spiritual-religious caste and its worldview will take power in the Religious Belt as a whole and in the industrialized North as well, but by evolution instead of revolution.

As religious revolution sweeps the Religious Belt, the Belt will divide up, I feel, into roughly four blocs. Remember, revolution makes countries powerful. As a result of the political and economic power generated by these revolutions, reinforced by the world dominance of religious and spiritual worldviews, world power will again shift, this time from Confucio, Europa, and Polario to these four religious-spiritual blocs, which I call:

1. The South Asian, or Bharati, Federation, consisting of India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Tibet.

2. The Central Asian Islamic Federation, consisting of Afghanistan, Iran, perhaps Turkey, the ex-Soviet Islamic republics, and Kurdistan.

3. The Pan-Semitic Federation, consisting of Israel, the Palestine Republic, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Iraq, and all the countries of the Arabian Peninsula.

4. The Maghreb Federation, consisting of the North African countries minus Egypt.

 

Two of these blocs, the Bharati and Pan-Semitic Federations, will be the main great powers of the mid-21st century. There is time to mention only two reasons for their rise to power:

One is because religion and spirituality, the areas these two blocs will excel in, will become the main source of economic as well as spiritual power during this period. In the Warrior Age, military power was the source of all power. In the Merchant and Worker Ages, that is, over the last 350 years, economic power, as we know, has become the foundation for military power. But in the next age, spiritual power will be the source of economic, therefore military, therefore all power.

The second reason for the rise to power, particularly, of the Pan-Semitic Federation will be the migration, for at least four different reasons detailed in my book, of at least 2 million American and Canadian Jews to Israel -- and the return of large numbers of Palestinian refugees to the Palestine Republic.

Bear in mind, however, that power is not just the coercive-manipulative-type military, economic, and knowledge power we are most accustomed to, and that characterizes the Warrior, Merchant, and Worker Ages, respectively (and that Alvin Toffler explains so well in his book Powershift). There is also spiritual power.

These two blocs will not just be economically, militarily, and mentally powerful, they will also be spiritually powerful, with a strong spiritual influence over the rest of the world.

As I contemplate the rise of these two blocs, I am amazed how the prophecies of the world religions -- Hinduism, Judaism, Islam, and Christianity -- seem to uncannily correspond to this natural historical evolution.

Peak Stage

Finally, in the peak stage of the Spiritual-Religious Age No. 2, from about 2050 on, the world and its spirituality will have evolved to where the rest of the world will have caught up to the Religious Belt powers, so that there will be no great powers to speak of. All the blocs will have become roughly equal in economic and spiritual development.

But human spirituality will have deepened to where it starts integrating those elements of our "roots," our yin prehistoric childhood past, that have been repressed by the traditional yang world religions of the Religious Belt. These elements are mainly the body, nature, and sexuality, all of which were essential to the religious feeling of prehistoric cultures on every continent. These feelings are somewhat alive today only among the indigenous cultures: native North and South American, Siberian, tribal in various Asian countries, and native Australian, New Zealand, and Oceanian -- and, of course, in Africa.

The only world region where these feelings have not been suppressed beyond recognition is sub-Saharan Africa (and remote parts of Latin America). Even today, within African Christianity and Islam, these old religious feelings still live and thrive.

So in the early peak stage, until the world completely integrates these repressed elements into its spirituality, the last great power of history, sub-Saharan Africa (and to some extent Latin America), because of its spiritual power, will have the strongest influence.



 

Conclusion

In this paper I've tried to explain the three macrohistories based on Age, Sex, and Caste, and what they seem to tell us about the future. If you find them to be true broad descriptions of history, you could, I'm sure, find in them other suggestions about where we're headed, based on your own interpretation of them from your own personal experience.

THE END

Those of you interested in the logic behind the forecasts in more detail may contact me via e-mail at elitov (at) hotmail.com to obtain a signed copy of the book, The Spiritual Imperative: Sex, Age, and the Last Caste (Listprice: US$20).

Image: "Yin-Yang, Computer Generated Image" by mamjodh, courtesy of Creative Commons license.

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Picture of <em>Phoenix-from-the-wasteland</em>

If you stare at the past long enough..

step 1: Establish loose metaphorical system.
step 2: Focus on positive examples that match said system while ignoring the negatives.
step 3: Make wild predictions based upon said system.

It is my conjecture that you could fit world history into any sequence of hexagrams in the I-ching or any sequence of planets around the sun. In fact any sequence of metaphor. Pick three cards from the tarot and I bet you could make a case for history following that pattern. This is a testament to the power of metaphor. Beware conclusions based upon metaphorical reasoning.

If you stare at the past long enough you can see what ever you want.

Be the change you want to see through internal alchemy

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The Warrior's Rattle

Last week I went and serched for those walking The Longest Walk in Ohio. I brought with me a rattle with many feathers that I had found in the circle of the Serpentine Mound in Ohio. I go to it every year. I was going to present them them with it and tell them the meaning behind it and the warrior. I never found them, I guess it just wasn't meant to be, and brought the rattle back home and just said a little prayer silently for them with it.

A couple days later a couple of Mormons knocked on my door. One was of American Indian descent and the other was European American descent. We spoke about faith and heritage and life in general. At the end of our discussion they wanted to pray. So we did.

They said their prayer about how they wanted my heart to open up to God and they asked God will help me to see. They were about to rise up and leave but I stopped them and said it's my turn. I moved the coffee table out from the center of the room and picked up the rattle with many feathers. And I danced and prayed in silence before them while shaking the rattle with many feathers. When I finished my prayer I looked at them both and said, "Your prayers were answered."

And before they left to one I gave a feather and to another a painting on my wall that I had painted. He said he liked it. It was my Picaso. And today, I looked for any news on The Longest Walk, http://narcosphere.narconews.com/notebook/brenda-norrell/2008/06/ohio-po... and I see that I had found the Warrior rising in Ohio. And again I'll shake my rattle for the walkers to the end of the state line.

Lawrence gives us a caste system of four... I believe that there are four, just like the four directions, but do not believe that we are bound or born into them. I believe the true four are The visionary, the warrior, the teacher, and the healer. You must serch for the one you are. And there is no struggle between them... only paths to be journeyed. In these four you will find what you are looking for... and this is that there is no such thing as being superhuman... just human with spirit.

And what age do I believe we are in right now? The Age of The Visionary... people awakening, but it could be the age of The Warrior, it could be the age of the healer, it could be the age of the teacher... it depends on who you are.

It is the Age of Shedding, no matter how we go about it -- through the masses or on our own. I believe Lawrence does touch upon this, and on this we agree, something about us all, like a snake renewing her skin, is being shed, something great is happening and the caste of your own character will be known to you and you'll never be the same... You warrior, teacher, healer, visionary.

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Example..

The human body has cycles so does history..

First we eat, then we digest, then we defecate.

The first part of history can be seen as eating because most of our efforts were focused into consuming in order to stay alive.

Starting in the late middle ages and ending 'round about now. With an abundance of material wealth we digested. This was characterised by the process of changing our environment into a form that can be used by us. Our science, culture and technology made us extremely proficient at this. Our extra leisure time has given us time to digest and deliberate our situation. All this digestion has also given us a great amount of energy with wich to digest some more.

In stage three. With nowhere for our excrement to go - we drown in our own shit.

There you go - that took me all of ten minutes.

"Be the change you want to see through internal alchemy"
Picture of <em>Phoenix-from-the-wasteland</em>

See Peter agrees with me..

See Peter agrees with me.. we are entering the age of Shedding..

I don't mean to be disrespectful. I enjoyed both the original article and Pete's comment. Peace.

Be the change you want to see through internal alchemy
Picture of <em>Peter Deane</em>

Phoenix-from-th...

You got me to thinking... maybe we always shed and we always have and we always will into something new.

It's when we drown in our own shit or in someone else's shit that we don't.

Maybe this is The Age of Shit and we are going into The Age of Removing all the Shit in our lives.  That would be a great age indeed.

But what is the shit?  And who is in it... and who wants out? 

Today is part of forever.

Interesting but flawed

Problems: This model is actually not very androgynous, it's very yang. Like the masculine principle, this model emphasizes autonomy, freedom, individualism and detachment from community. The author misunderstands the yin principle: looking at the big picture tends to require stepping back and detaching from the details, violence is frequent in yin cultures and directed in particular against those who are perceived to be "outside" of the collective.

 

There is also a misunderstanding of how cultures manifest yin and yang energy. For example, it is assumed that patriarchal cultures are yang. This is not the case - patriarchal cultures are yin, because they prioritize the rights of the group or the collective over the rights of the individual. That's why Yang cultures are the first to create feminism, freedom of expression is strictly controlled in Islamic countries, etc.

 

The claim that the origins of humanity are yin is suspect. In fact, yin and yang are always at work at every level - yang drives us upwards, yin includes the previous. The lower of the age stages are a bit confused, and the author totally misses Stage 6, which arrived in the mid-19th century, exploded around 1950 with the New Age, post-modernism, anti-Enlightenment thinking, etc. We are actually seeing the decline of this Yin stage, and are about to enter a Yang dominant stage (although I agree that at each stage, the disharmony between yin and yang is lessened).

 

The caste model is just completely wrong. It's easy to see that the castes represent Body, Mind and Spirit, and from that its obvious that we don't grow from Body to Mind to Spirit in any kind of developmental sequence. On the contrary, we inhabit each of these simultaneously throughout our lifetimes, even though we do develop and grow in those categories. It's true there is physical, mental, spiritual development, but these occur simultaneously, not in a sequence.

at a glance

so history cycles, one, and at the turn, is a spiral. where as you can contain all the little cycles in the one, until enough is enough, and the one returns. a full fledged Universe. and the sequence like the Odessa step sequence in the Battleship Potempkin, is like a little cycle in the big one.We just get that effect because of the various shifts of levels the models reflect.

as Hieroglyphics appear to have no perspective view, as far as the later historical development of perspective goes, they nevertheless paralleled the dimensions of the pyramids.

James Joyce, and Yeats parallel, cycles and spirals, (gyre)

so in the blink of the eye of eternity, all the myths, stories, divination systems, castes, class, say the warrior class, is not the same as the actual cycle that contains the all.

we at some point make all this metahistory, or macro-history, and then it begins all over again.

we just make the quantum leap of faith.That this all makes sense, in the highest sense.After all we are learning stuff we once knew, through nature.

Interesting piece. And a question...

"...these caste ages get shorter and shorter except for the two spiritual-religious ages, which are very long."

 

Lawrence, If you are visiting the site, I wonder if you could explain briefly or perhaps using metaphor, exactly why/how you see this pattern of longer 1st ages and shorter subsequent ages. Thanks for this article condensing your ideas.

Optimistic but still logical...

I agree that this does seem to be a very optimistic model, it appears pretty convenient that everything is going to correct itself within most of our lifetimes. However, it does seem quite logical, in the short time I've been alive I've witnessed changes around me moving toward the spiritual and away from the material- it also seems natural, however cynical your view of humanity is, that we would collectively learn from our mistakes. The worker age is proving unsustainable and those of us who have reached the peak of success in this age have often found it not to be fulfilling. I'm interested to read the book and find out more about this... although other interpretations will help to give me a more rounded view so if anyone has any literature to suggest, that would be greatly appreciated!

more literature

I haven't read this myself, but have read references to Arnold Toynbee's A Study of History in the elaboration of the broad patterns of historical shifts.

Thanks!

Thanks very much for your suggestion, I will check it out!

Thanks Lawrence

I found your take on human progress concerning the past and present fascinating. In fact, I've saved the piece to a special folder for future reference. I know I'll want to revisit it again and again. Very original (to me, anyway) and very well conceived.

While I approach your future vision with some skepticism because the farther out you look, the more disjointed your predictions seem to become, I understand from personal experience that the future is most difficult to remember with any clarity.

Perhaps my skepticism is prejudiced by my strong desire to live to see the resolution, which you place further out than I'd hoped.

 

Thank you for some tasty food for thought!

 

 

"everything means something"

Picture of <em>Peter Deane</em>

Shaking The Tree

Shake,

I would like to say thanks for shaking the tree again.   I come here and scan over the readings, put my two cents in, and think that my thoughts have shaken the tree... maybe a few apples have fallen from the tree, I think to myself.

But when you write and do the same more then a few apples fall from my tree.  You know I see now why I was so quick to discard much of what he was writing.  Because 2030 is just way to out there for me to comprehend.  That is just too distant for me to place any concern about.

Maybe that's just the way we are in this society.  And maybe that's why we are finding ourselves in the fix we are in.  We don't look ahead to generations after us as if it is us.  Everything in our lives are based on the next quarterly earnings, or next year's profit margin, our own longings for comfort and revelation be it personal or communal.

Here's a Father's Day Story...  it’s only a week away into the future.

There was this man, I believe he was a Mic Mac American Indian but I'm really not sure, and the leaders of major corporations invited him in for some knowledge.

They spoke about the world as it is and the way we think about it.  The Mic Mac spoke of the need for a yellow flag (as they do in NASCAR) to pull back the horses, as one would say, to give warning to what may lay ahead.  He then asked the CEOs about this need.

One of the men in the room, a CEO of a large corporation, spoke up and said, "You know I understand what you are saying but to answer your question, no, we can't pull back our horses as you say because we have to show a profit.  As a CEO I must show a profit and if I don't show a profit I'm fired, simple as that, I have to show a profit."

"To who?"  The Mic Mac responded.

"To you -- the stockholder."

"Well,"  the Mic Mac continued.  "Are you married?"

"Yes I am," replied the CEO.

"Do you have children?"

"Yes I do."

"Do you have any grandchildren?"

"I have two boys."

"When do you cease to be a CEO and become a grandfather?"

A heavy silence filled the room because it was a moral question.  And the Mic Mac thought that if you don't have a moral question in your governing process then you don't have a process that is going to survive.  That's the governing law -- the moral question -- you must have a moral society or you won't have any.  The CEO couldn't answer the question and neither could anyone other CEO in the room because it was a moral question.

The silence was broken by another CEO that kind of laughed it off to break the silence and said, "You're an Indian.  Can you tell us a prophecy?"

But of course the Mic Mac had already told him a lot.  But at that moment the Mic Mac said, "Certainly I can and I can guarantee it."  The Mic Mac looked at all the men in the room and continued, "Next year we will meet and nothing will have changed."

Again there was silence.

Anyway, it is just a story that was shaken from the tree.  Thanks, Shake, for reminding me. Maybe it's something to think about with Father's Day approaching.  It's only a week away.  Grandfather’s are included.  I just became one May, 31st.  I guess I better start working for that year 2030.  My grandchild just may thank me for it.  That’s if he’s here to see it.

Today is part of forever.

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His-Story

I wonder what Barak Obama and Larry Sinclair would think of this piece on their limo ride to immortality?

 

"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."

                            George Orwell

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Patterns, History, Dialectic, Leary, Crowley

I actually happen to love models of time and history. And in response to a poster here, Terence McKenna actually DID take the i-ching and read history into it.Since the i'ching has binary patterns to it, it is almost reasonable to read that into history. Terence Mckenna took the coupling of 'habit' (yin) and 'novelty' (yang) and placed them unto time.

As a matter of fact that is what Hegel did with his historical dialectic. Which brings me to Hegel and to my confusion as to how the author failed to mention Hegel's Historical Dialectic. Now there is a fascinating pattern to history and just because we can project patterns onto history does not mean that history itself cannot hold patterns unto her own nature. The historical dialectic of history, being thesis, antithesis, and synthesis is TERNARY in nature, as is TAOISM (yin, yang, and wu chi [yin and yang indistinguishable])

The sexual historical dialectic mentioned in the article is a full rip-off of Alister Crowley's Historical Model of History, which was interesting to see. I say 'rip-off' lightly, I am sure the sexual dialectic was inspired in some odd sense by the work crowley did. 

which brings me to Tim Leary's "Neuro-Logic", which gives a very elegant example of the basic patterns of mental and spiritual energies (kabbalah, i-ching, astrology) perfectly fused with science and also gives pretty astonishing predictive models that have all come true in the past 8 years. The fact that history can have a binary relationship into a ternary metapattern is not surprising and I think it is a reasonable suggestion. It's just difficult because our minds also have that same pattern, and since history is a evolution of our ideas, and our ideas being a product of our minds, it is natural the two shall overlap at some point and reflect each other.

i know a guy that wrote a book

about history, called the 'Spiritual Gyre'he quotes a lot of historians, and uses examples from the times, he, friends and myself lived in, namely the 60's movements, his basic premise is that history cycles around into a spiral, this the "Spiritual Gyre" that the Zeitgeist of each age returns,fulfilling what was the resonance from the beginning ages, in this we can see all the micro-macro flips of the I-Ching that also is a system that revolves through a series of opening, and closings of little cycles, or ages, of which there are only so many combinations.So now with computer imaging systems and quantum systems, we can extrapolate this infinite chaos and order, almost to zero.
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Complexity of history

History is so complex and chaotic that the idea of finding a grand-narrative with any predictive power seams absurd to me. I do agree that there are deep structures underlying history. I see them more as archetypal dynamics of change that exist at all times engaged in a continual dance. Pick any sequence of them and you'll be able to find evidence for them.

I applaud any attempt at creating an inspiring myth. I truly hope that we are moving into an age where spirituality is the basis for economical power but I doubt that it is inevitable. We have a lot of work to do before that happens and perhaps we need a sense of uncertainty to galvanise us.

"Be the change you want to see through internal alchemy"
Picture of <em>Bubblefish</em>

Historical Complexity

clearly history is guided by the ideas that drive human progress. I don't think it is as complex or as mysteriously dark as you suggest.

Pierre de Chardin, Hegel, even McKenna, Leary and Crowley made spot on predictions about the current age we are living in using their models of history. Leary even explained HOW you can make a prediction of history and evolution in a similar manner to how Mendelev was able to predict what the missing elements would be in his table of elements.

 

 

 

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Predictions

It's easy to make spot on predictions when you make them vague enough. I am not familiar with their predictions but could you give an example of a prediction of theirs that would not hold if predicted of any point of history? Also a few positive examples of predictions that have proved correct has to be balanced by the many that haven't.

 

If the memetic soup we swim around in is not a complex system then I don't know what is. A complex system is characterised by the fact that small changes in the starting conditions (now) can have huge effects on the long term future. Who knows when the next one man terrorist, charismatic leader, leap in technology or world changing book will strike. Given how little we know about the state of now I really really doubt a simplistic model's predictive power.

 

These models are fun and useful if they create self-fufilling positive prophecys.

 

“Do you want an absolute prediction? Then you want only today, and you reject tomorrow. You are the ultimate conservative. You are trying to hold back movement in an infinitely changing universe. The verb to be does make idiots of us all.”

Frank Herbert

 

 

"Be the change you want to see through internal alchemy"

Picture of <em>Phoenix-from-the-wasteland</em>

A great metaphorical prediction

i think this may have been posted in a comment before but it's short and sweet and to the point. It's called Metaphor-mosis..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzU3H7E0DO8

"Be the change you want to see through internal alchemy"
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a proven historical model

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noosphere

I love that concept.

 

 

bubble fish thanks for the

bubble fish thanks for the links.

 

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I Work For London Escorts Agency

dear dean

could one be visionary, warrior, teacher, and healer, or do you have to pick one? I feel like all of those at times, what about a mystery walker? what is that ?
Picture of <em>Peter Deane</em>

The Rattle Dance

Yeah, I believe you have them all in you.  Every year I kind of make one the major.  I've been doing it, well, going on my third year.


With it I play an instrument.  I begin each new caste by playing in the center of the Serpentine Mound's circle in Ohio.  The first year I played the drum for the healer. (It's was the year I had begun to get out of an abusive marriage).  The second year I played the bell for the visonary. (It was the year I died and tasted death).  This soltice when I arrived at the mound... I played the rattle... want to know how I found the rattle?


I bought a gift for someone at a store called, Spirit Wind.  The gift was a symbol of a star between moons.  I was going to give it to a woman that had treated me kind within the last year. Together we had woven who we are to others and ourselves -- all the good and the bad of it.


Thinking about her, I took a ride to the Serpent mound with the star between moons. The sun was shinning bright and the radio was playing some cool tunes. I thought also about the many people in my life. I was thinking also about what instrument to play for the upcoming year.  I have already played the drum (healer) and the bell (visionary). I had two instruments left until I figure out which one is dominent in me – it was either going to be the rattle (warrior) or sticks (teacher).


With those thoughts, I arrived at the mound and grabbed the white medicine pouch from a white gift box. In the medicine pouch was the star between moons. With them in my hand, I walked up a hill that ended-up in the tail end of a giant serpent. To the Great Holy Spirit--I prayed. It was a simple prayer, not only for myself, but all others as well, a simple prayer of forgiveness. “Where there is injury… forgiveness and pardon.”


After the prayer I walked over the body of the snake, to its head, and then into the large open and wide circle that lays in front of his open mouth.  In the circle, from who knows where it came from, lay a large brown rattle adorned with eleven feathers and twelve white beads. And as I picked it up, I thought, “A rattle it will be for this year.  The warrior.”


I then removed the star with two moons out of the medicine bag and said another prayer of forgiveness for everyone. I then spun the star between moons around in the circle and ended up facing another bright star – the sun.


With the rattle still in my hand I lifted the star with two moons and a stone into the brightness of the sun. I brought the star with two moons down to my lips and kissed the bright stone in the center, with an “I do.”


I then began to shake the rattle as a loving peaceful warrior would, and sang a hopeful song of rhythm and rhyme, and prayed a prayer, for everyone that needs to forgive.

People that love each other know how to forgive each other, receiving or giving, they know the right thing to do, and this forgiveness is to happen freely without any regrets, and this also includes forgiving one's self. In forgiveness the “I love you still” is heard again and again.


"Let nothing stop you from forgiving me and the Serpent" I said to Father Sky. "For if I can forgive the serpent then so can you." 


I then dwelt on the deep silence that settled all around me. And with the star between moons back in the medicine pouch, I turned around and followed the serpent’s body out from where I came and walked past the stairs where I climbed to heaven the previous year, also on the Winter’s Solstice.


Forgiveness does heal and renew. Love is always in-between the mix of who we want to be for others and who we already are… to infinity.

It’s already been an interesting year following the way of the warrior.   It’s been lonely, that’s for sure, but learning much about patience and the love of self.


So, yeah, you can be all these at the same time.  One just seems longing to show itself above the others.  The road you take you choose, and when you go back to your center you take it all in and weigh it with all the others.

I believe the uncertain roads we walk are all a mystery at all times.  You know, I only have teacher left to learn, I can’t wait because being a warrior is rough road… I’ve been finding myself standing alone in the courts a lot… but I feel it’s worth it.  Learning about isolation isn’t a bad thing… because I'm learning much about myself and the strength I have to make it through anything with just a bit of patience.

The most beautiful rattle dance ever seen...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIV8LVqcg2k

Today is part of forever.

If this sentence is true, then Santa Claus exists!

The yin and yang suggest duality but also suggest paradox to me. Could you help me expand on this thought and how it relates to macrohistories.

There more things change the more things remain the same?

I like your reasoning of the age model macrohistory. And I agree that humanity is in a adolescent stage of evoluntionary development. Humanity is facing the foolish pitfalls of being a teenager like suicide and the belief in invincibility...Your saying that the next stage in your age model corresponds to adulthood. I disagree with that statement. "Stage six" corresponds more to "stage one" as the late teenage years represents a new birth, the greater awarness of adulthood. Early adults or the early twenties seems to be a time of self discovery...what do I want to do with my life and who do I want to become. Some of the pitfalls of twenty somethings is identity crisis and conformity. Your saying that the "androgynous future" is promiscuity, how is that any different from now or even the past? Your thoughts on "caste model" predict a new world order where "All the blocs will have become roughly equal in economic and spiritual development." So basically your saying that the world will be fair? Since when has the world ever been fair? Your "type-two" macrohistories sound like "type-one" nothing new under the sun type stuff to me.

Oh indeed, the description

Oh indeed, the description of the yin and yang system, the female and the man, is very good. It shows exactly how men react and act in the real life. Some of them need a day job killer - google nemesis to wake up to reality! Really, they are such babies most of them.

Modern yin and yang system

Need to say that I respect traditional yin and yang system, but want to mention that modern relations between males and females are very different in our time. Some women are doing men' job, on the other hand some men are working like escorts who providing companionship services. I cannot say that it's good or bad, just want to say that we are living in "another" modern 21st century world, which so very different in comparison with 16th or 17th century. We have new ideas, new point of view.