Back to the Cold War?

Tensions are high in the continuing conflict between Russia and the former Soviet republic of Georgia, despite a cease-fire agreement signed by both parties over the weekend. Although Moscow has pledged to begin withdrawing troops, reports on Monday described little evidence of Russian forces leaving Georgian soil.

The conflict began during the early morning hours of August 8th when Georgia attacked the Moscow-backed region of South Ossetia in a move to reclaim the breakaway state. Russia countered with a fierce offensive against key Georgian cities near the capital of Tbilisi. Both assaults caused significant destruction and civilian casualties, although the exact death tolls are a subject of debate.

The eruption of violence signals a troubling escalation in a long-standing political rivalry between the two countries. Under President Mikhail Saakashvili's leadership, Georgia has forged close ties to the United States, which views the republic as a crucial democratic foothold in the Caucasus. With strong U.S. endorsement, both Georgia and ex-Soviet state Ukraine are lobbying hard for acceptance into NATO, to the vexation of former Russian president Vladimir Putin. In turn, Russia has become a prominent ally of South Ossetia in recent years, supporting its campaign for independence and even issuing Russian passports to its citizens.

Neither alliance is without political motivations. The U.S. has critical energy interests in the recently opened Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which runs strategically through Georgia to connect the petroleum resources of the Caspian Sea with markets in Europe and the West. For its part, Russia's intense involvement in the separatist territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is likely more about punishing Georgia for its coziness with the United States than anything else.

The exchange of military aggression between Russia and Georgia has inspired terse rhetoric from the White House and the Kremlin, threatening to rekindle long-dormant Cold War tensions. While it seems that peace in the region would behoove American oil interests, some analysts argue that the United States is acting as a provocateur in the current conflict. In an August 10 article, Michel Chossudovsky details the rapid build-up of Georgia’s military by the U.S. and Israel over the past several years. The South Ossetia strike, he suggests, was planned and organized under the direction of NATO and the U.S. with the aim of baiting Russia into an international confrontation.

This claim, while speculative, bears consideration in light of a widely reported war game exercise between American and Georgian soldiers held near Tbilisi in July. (Curiously, a popular MSNBC article about the controversial training session has recently “expired” from the network’s website.)

At the moment, the conflict appears far from over. It's too early to know the fate of South Ossetia and Georgia, but what is immediately clear is that a new, emboldened Russia has emerged from the ashes of the Soviet empire. During a time of runaway gas prices, the country's vast oil reserves have brought it significant wealth, as well as manipulative power over those who rely on Russian petroleum. Furthermore, the retaliatory response was clearly masterminded by now Prime Minister Putin, confirming suspicions that his presidential successor, Dmitry Medvedev, is merely a democratic figurehead in an authoritarian regime.

Still smarting from its post-Cold War fall from grace (and freshly enraged at the West's recognition of an independent Kosovo earlier this February), Russia appears determined to reassert its past glory as a formidable opponent to the United States. The challenge is hardly surprising when one considers the provocative moves by the U.S. to beef up Georgia’s military and last Thursday’s deal with nearby Poland to house American missile defenses, despite vocal protests from Moscow. A fight for control over Caspian oil may also be playing out between East and West interests.

Just a few weeks ago, the Russian media was abuzz with rumors that the Kremlin may send nuclear-equipped bombers to Cuba, which Moscow denied. Although this news went largely unreported by American channels, the respected private intelligence agency Stratfor picked up on the story with the concern that the gravest crises of the Cold War might soon be revisited. Indeed, in light of the shrill chorus of saber rattling coming from Moscow, Washington, and Europe, it seems the long thaw of post-Cold War politics has taken a turn to the chilly relations of the past.

For a detailed history and analysis of the relations between Russia, Georgia, and South Ossetia, see James Traub’s New York Times piece, “Taunting the Bear”.

Image credits: "Communist vs. Capitalist Unicorn", "map_cropped" and "Meanwhile Back in Communist Russia", used under Creative Commons license.