Back to the Cold War?
ST Frequency
Tensions are high in the continuing conflict between Russia and the former Soviet republic of Georgia, despite a cease-fire agreement signed by both parties over the weekend. Although Moscow has pledged to begin withdrawing troops, reports on Monday described little evidence of Russian forces leaving Georgian soil.
The conflict began during the early morning hours of August 8th when Georgia attacked the Moscow-backed region of South Ossetia in a move to reclaim the breakaway state. Russia countered with a fierce offensive against key Georgian cities near the capital of Tbilisi. Both assaults caused significant destruction and civilian casualties, although the exact death tolls are a subject of debate.
The eruption of violence signals a troubling escalation in a long-standing political rivalry between the two countries. Under President Mikhail Saakashvili's leadership, Georgia has forged close ties to the United States, which views the republic as a crucial democratic foothold in the Caucasus. With strong U.S. endorsement, both Georgia and ex-Soviet state Ukraine are lobbying hard for acceptance into NATO, to the vexation of former Russian president Vladimir Putin. In turn, Russia has become a prominent ally of South Ossetia in recent years, supporting its campaign for independence and even issuing Russian passports to its citizens.
Neither alliance is without political motivations. The U.S. has critical energy interests in the recently opened Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which runs strategically through Georgia to connect the petroleum resources of the Caspian Sea with markets in Europe and the West. For its part, Russia's intense involvement in the separatist territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is likely more about punishing Georgia for its coziness with the United States than anything else.
The exchange of military aggression between Russia and Georgia has inspired terse rhetoric from the White House and the Kremlin, threatening to rekindle long-dormant Cold War tensions. While it seems that peace in the region would behoove American oil interests, some analysts argue that the United States is acting as a provocateur in the current conflict. In an August 10 article, Michel Chossudovsky details the rapid build-up of Georgia’s military by the U.S. and Israel over the past several years. The South Ossetia strike, he suggests, was planned and organized under the direction of NATO and the U.S. with the aim of baiting Russia into an international confrontation.
This claim, while speculative, bears consideration in light of a widely reported war game exercise between American and Georgian soldiers held near Tbilisi in July. (Curiously, a popular MSNBC article about the controversial training session has recently “expired” from the network’s website.)
At the moment, the conflict appears far from over. It's too early to know the fate of South Ossetia and Georgia, but what is immediately clear is that a new, emboldened Russia has emerged from the ashes of the Soviet empire. During a time of runaway gas prices, the country's vast oil reserves have brought it significant wealth, as well as manipulative power over those who rely on Russian petroleum. Furthermore, the retaliatory response was clearly masterminded by now Prime Minister Putin, confirming suspicions that his presidential successor, Dmitry Medvedev, is merely a democratic figurehead in an authoritarian regime.
Still smarting from its post-Cold War fall from grace (and freshly enraged at the West's recognition of an independent Kosovo earlier this February), Russia appears determined to reassert its past glory as a formidable opponent to the United States. The challenge is hardly surprising when one considers the provocative moves by the U.S. to beef up Georgia’s military and last Thursday’s deal with nearby Poland to house American missile defenses, despite vocal protests from Moscow. A fight for control over Caspian oil may also be playing out between East and West interests.
Just a few weeks ago, the Russian media was abuzz with rumors that the Kremlin may send nuclear-equipped bombers to Cuba, which Moscow denied. Although this news went largely unreported by American channels, the respected private intelligence agency Stratfor picked up on the story with the concern that the gravest crises of the Cold War might soon be revisited. Indeed, in light of the shrill chorus of saber rattling coming from Moscow, Washington, and Europe, it seems the long thaw of post-Cold War politics has taken a turn to the chilly relations of the past.
For a detailed history and analysis of the relations between Russia, Georgia, and South Ossetia, see James Traub’s New York Times piece, “Taunting the Bear”.
Image credits: "Communist vs. Capitalist Unicorn", "map_cropped" and "Meanwhile Back in Communist Russia", used under Creative Commons license.
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hypothesis
Thanks for writing this useful summary, ST, which confirms some of my thoughts on the matter.
I just had a theory which I will offer here:
What if this war was arranged between the Putin regime and the Bush regime, with Georgia as sacrificial cow?
I could see the potential of artificial inflation of a Cold War nuclear threat, leading to a late-October surprise, and then the calling-off of the US elections due to international crisis - a Cuban Missile-type standoff.
When I was asked a few months ago, who I thought was going to win in Obama vs McCain, I said, "Bush." I hope that Obama is allowed to take the White House, but I am not sure the current occupants plan to leave.
In terms of creating a "One World, One Dream," New World Order fascist state, it seems to me that Bush, Putin, and the Chinese leaders probably all see eye-to-eye. Also, the Russians and Chinese probably would love Bush to stay in office because his foreign policy and economic policy is so incredibly bad that he is destroying US credibility and influence across the world at a breathtaking rate, allowing Russia and China to move in and take over. From the perspective of the Bush regime, they might not see why they should face the uncertainty and risk of leaving office and possibly facing trials for war crimes if the popular mood turns against them.
An engineered nuclear stand-off would allow Bush to stay in office for an indeterminate period without an official switch to a military dictatorship.
It is interesting that Bush and Putin were appearing with each other in public at the Olympics as the war started. Historically, conspirators seem to enjoy this type of thing - showing themselves together in plain view as their plots are unleashed. It also means they could find opportunity to discuss the nuances. I am reminded of the convenient lunch meeting between the state department and the head of Pakistani security (if memory serves) on Sept 11, 2001.
I consider this a solid hypothesis and wonder what others will think.
"Will the transformation."-Rilke
bush on putin
Here's what Bush said about Putin after they first met:
He's an honest, straightforward man who loves his country. He loves his
family. We share a lot of values. I view him as a remarkable leader. I
believe his leadership will serve Russia well. Russia and America have
the opportunity to accomplish much together; we should seize it.
I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward
and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense
of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best
interests of his country. And I appreciated so very much the frank
dialogue.
There was no kind of diplomatic chit-chat, trying to throw each
other off balance. There was a straightforward dialogue. And that's the
beginning of a very constructive relationship. I wouldn't have invited
him to my ranch if I didn't trust him.
"Will the transformation."-Rilke
I thought Iran was
iran so far away
in fact, putin said russia would not allow the US to attack iran, so they developed an alternative.
"Will the transformation."-Rilke
More thoughts...
Thanks, Daniel.
Many analysts from across the spectrum are nervously suggesting that the ongoing war of words between Washington and Moscow could lead to a Cold War-style military stand-off. When I discovered the Stratfor report about Russsia possibly moving nuclear bombers to Cuba, this speculative scenario began to look much more real.
Many reports in the U.S. are disparaging the Russian press as a corrupt propaganda campaign, which no doubt it is. However, it is curious that American coverage has been noticeably slanted toward a pro-Georgian stance, brushing past their rather violent attack on South Ossetia to harp on Russia's retaliatory response. A suggestive bias if not outright censorship, which I also suspect is going on. MSNBC.com's curious removal of a story from only weeks earlier detailing a war game exercise between U.S. and Georgian forces only serves to make the training session look more incriminating.
Without venturing to know that some collusion is in place between Bush and Putin, I observe that there are clearly forces at work in the American media to sway public opinion against Russia from the very outset of this conflict. Looking back over the events and actions leading up to the August violence, it is also fairly evident that both the US and Russia have been gearing up for a showdown.
It also seems likely that Russia may join forces with China if global military alliances form as this thing plays out. The anti-American climate in many parts of the world do not bode well for the US heading into such a scenario.
As for the November election being called off, I've had this suspicion for a while. My research into the presidential directives HSPD-20/NSPD-51 from last May suggests to me that there is a very real desire by the current admninistration to install itself as an authoritarian regime, in the event of a "national emergency."
However, McCain also seems to me to be a party shill, and could serve his controllers in the same capacity as Bush if elected. The trouble with Moscow could give the hawkish McCain an advantage over Obama as the election nears, and anti-Russian sentiment swells. Either way, the Republicans are holding the cards...
-st
Eye on the ball
I have been watching this scenario play out bearing in mind some predictions I had made generated from the Poland - US missile "defense" talks. From the perspective of enslaving poor brown people, the Russia - US merger was the logical conclusion and the "missile shield" was either just a way to make some $$$$ or a distraction as Daniel pointed out, perhaps both. Although I did guess Chavezs' efforts at moving towards socialism would be swatted before hand. Looking at it now and considering the transitions taking place in South America I'd wage the US is waiting for further self inflicted destabilization amongst South American countries before making a move. Wouldn't want another "Iraqi-nam."
While I really hate giving this stuff energy I just can't help myself, it's like crack. Bush staying in office is a horrifying idea. I recall relating recently to some speculations as to why Bill Clinton has yet to endorse Obama. The theory went something like: Clinton is not in fact caught up in any silly personal gripe with Obama but rather more inclined to believe the current administration is going to refuse to hand over the reigns.
Again, speculation but after the gross loss of trust the US gov. has for my competence I see no reason why I should trust theirs.
Probabilities
When one considers the assorted, sundry and manifold situations in the world that either qualify as crises, or are teetering on the edge of crisis, it hardly seems necessary for there to be any kind of conspiracy to precipitate a catastrophe severe enough to warrant martial law in the United States.
Then again, timing a catastrophe to impede the elections in November would require some element of control. Whether or not the Bush administration is competent enough to orchestrate such a blatant and suspiciously predictible power grab is not at all clear to me.
Blackwater in Georgia?
a true cold war sequel
An interesting situation indeed
Over here the press coverage has been similarly one-sided, dismal and obfuscating. To any casual observer it would seem as if Russia had invaded Georgia. I have had to scour and dredge to gain anything like an 'objective' overview of the situation. A few salient points (heresay to me, not being in command of the knowledge); the South Ossetians are of Aryan (think iran) descent, several large American-made arms caches have been uncovered in both Abkhasia and Georgia. Israel has also apparently spent 1 Billion dollars the in training and equipping of the 'Georgian' army. A PKK bomb went off a week before this in Turkey disabling the mentioned pipeline also. I was also instantly suspicious of the coincidence of the Olympics and this action. The danger now is that militias and irregulars and other opportunists* are taking advantage of the chaos of a freshly opened, old wound.
breathe easy
Bush
is a robot, not one word that comes out of his mouth is his, one could extend this notion that Bush and Putin are hand in hand, we seem to be seeing the old dying gods have found a body or two to animate, and since the body and the dying gods are an ill fit, all be it that words coming out of the mouth of the robot body of Bush are like reading Gibon's the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.Why do we speak of these scenes in the world as if they are anything but a product of lies deceit, and more damn lies.Has there ever been anything other on the world stage? Revolutions, the Magna Carta, the Rise of the American Empire, that held some hope of a Declaration of a rights of man, and so that entered the neurostream that there was some other player on the stage of the human drama, all the while the dumb machine like curtain of illusion keeps moving back and forth, and the empty stage shows its face for a instant. Then the talking heads drone on and the bombs fall like clock work, meanwhile the poles collapse. Shakespeare the puppet master, in heaven pulling the strings on his little devils, we were bored with the last flock of presidents and dictators, we have a truly tragic figure to keep the unwashed masses gnashing their chompers.
hear we are, playing the parts handed to us just before the play began, us, the people that see the screws in the necks of the media pundits, the invisible strings on the buffoons that pretend to be world leaders, the minions of the evil empire robots, terminators, hired assassins, dull bullies that have no conscience(they are christians, you know)monsters that are let out of the lab, fancy Tv studio station sets with christmas tree lighting tech, to make us feel good, about all the killing and destruction, the dumbed down folks in the midwest somewhere that let the leaders lead, just as long as the family picture is straight on their crumpling walls.Cold war indeed.
Coffers
Conflating for substantiating and inflating?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/19/usforeignpolicy.russ...
A weed in the narcissist's garden
1984 in 2008
Sam Michael
Hi, Important Article I happen to have an interesting perspective in this conflict as my wife is Russian and has a sister living near South Ossetia. In talking with the Russians I know, their propaganda is of course exactly opposite to ours, and many of them can't imagine how America has the hutzpa to get involved in the Russian federation business as usual border conflicts, the old USSR being the largest country in the world with enemies on every side. In the United States with Mexico and Canada as our only neighbors we take for granted the sheer inevitability of fighting border wars. With bombs flying over Georgia so soon after Baghdad this millenium is rocketing out of control, And the leaders of the free and unfree worlds are watching Olympians vie for a crown of olive leaves in the forbidden city.How do we?
cj, your post here is great, very good irridescent blurt of words pulling me into their vision
and then when i subside back into the dour reality, i feel like i can't do anything about the massive in-motioned spheres of bush&putin.
but what about the guys on my midwestern street? is there something i can do about them, who will go to war for (the false) mother glory, oh lord is there something i can do HERE?
is what will be what will be? i dunno. as the World Giants and their rallied-up armies go galloping, come galloping, the most essential question seems to me to be:
HOW do we wake them up???
who do we
think we are? could the writing on the wall be any more transparent? Is there any clue in our history books? What is religion? What is Science? do these speak to us?Do we know anything more about God? Do we know anything more about our brains? I'm sure there are thousands of books written on both these subjects just in the last few years even.All the great discoveries that have come along in the last years, since the ultimate destructive object was dreamed up and developed, just as the Bible was dreamed up and and developed like a destructive object too it seems, by some church fathers.One would think that the Bible is really science, because the stories of God, and then his son that comes along as predicted, and is duly murdered by men in power.
Why is it, that such little men, maybe good men, still bow their heads, and swallow all the mass of contradictions, mythic stories, and perhaps stumble on and see the subtext that has floated along linear history like a ghost, the logos? some parallel reality that speaks something like truth, to the mass of distortions that have been handed down, that perpetuate the illusions that make it for those same people in power that murdered gods son can get away with the slight of hand, that there is some revolutionary spiritual source that will liberate us some fine day, all the while systematically and symboliclly murdering every possible green shoot of manifesting intelligence before it can truly blossom.
In each successive passing god or zietgiest of the age, we see a green shoot pop up, and its energy allows some intelligence into the world, it has always been so, some form of art, creative story telling, rituals that weave visual knowledge into a living gnosis,building imagination into a real house of spirit, healing, singing, dance, the teachings of the Buddhas the Sufis the great spiritual energy of true people, of all native peoples...all this is cut down, and betrayed, in each passing age.
Until we arrive at the time we find ourselves in now, the products of all these other ages, when some of the intelligence passed through the blind spots, the spell of smoke and mirrors, bread and circus, that the people in power, have always used against the green shoot of truth, not the Lie that masquerades as THE TRUTH. the question being how can we wake the sleeping masses up from their Bibles their addictions, their Tv illusions, of hate mongers and false flages and false prophets? From the brain dead acceptance of leaders that keep playing the same old games, with bigger and better Bombs and Bibles.How can we wake up the salt of the earth from their toxic food air and water, and sons and daughters coming home in flag draped boxes, that the powers that be will not show on Tv any more, as they learned that from Vietnam. How do you say to Ma and Pa in their falling apart communities, where schools are not teaching, in hospitals that are are breeding grounds for staff infections and medical mistakes, in churches, where the Bibles pages turn, and the flock sits and gets a good whiff of good and evil, just enough to knock them out, and allow their bodies to keep walking around the shopping malls, or sit in bars and drink to God and Country. How do we wake then up?
missing the point...
I think most analysts tend to miss an important point and that explains why even our leaders failed to understand the russian reaction. It has to do with demographics, with Russia losing 700000 inhabitants each year (and it will get worse), its expansionist policies are a matter of survival.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH19Ag04.html
Kieth Oberman
Last night (I think) Kieth Oberman (MSNBC) stated that with the calming of tensions in Iraq, isn't it "interesting" how our government has suddenly resurrected an old enemy for us to fear. In addition he posited that this new distraction may well be our clue to an "October Surprise". (And on that subject, isn't it curious that the American general public is being prepared at all for an October Surprise by the mainstream media?)
What's new to me (In the past year) is the thinning of the veil of cooperation/opposition between the world powers. From opposite sides of the veil, the public is supposed to see good on their side and evil on the other. Lately the veil can be seen to be thinning for the general public, and the concensus seems to be leaning toward an awakening that there's evil on both sides, with a conspiracy of cooperation between them.
While I regard Oberman's bias and his emotional frenzy as necessary viewership attraction elements for MSNBC in the ultra right-ultra left competition for eyeballs, his over-the-top rants often touch a sweet spot in my own political conspiracy positions.
Another Cuban Missle Crisis (or a new Polish Missle Crisis) could well do the October trick.
Also, I hear that No Bullshit Biden might be chosen as VP. The plot thickens!
"everything means something"
Hoes n' tricks
This is about oil.
This terrible conflict is not the result of an international conspiracy but of our world's continued dependence upon oil. ST hits upon this in the article but then goes on to say that the conflict seems to be a way of punishing Georgia for its "coziness" to the U.S. I disagree. The reasons for this conflict have to do with Russia's national self-interests--I don't think there's anything moral about it, regardless of what either side claims.
Check out this article which explains the situation from within the overarching narrative of world oil consumption--what is being fought over is control of a pipeline that was built according to a plan devised by Clinton and carried out by Bush.
http://tinyurl.com/5ad7fk
The Russians were waiting for an opportunity to come in and grab that land back, so that they could be in total control of the oil being transported to Europe. The Georgian president got a little over-confident in the fact that America was on his side and wanted to keep the pipeline in Georgian control. His recklessness gave the Russians the opportunity they were waiting for--they made their move while the whole world was zoning out over the olympics and the U.S. sat navel gazing over its next president while a lame duck Dubya and a failing economy signaled its weakness to the world...
This isn't the stuff of conspiracies--just good old fashioned "Art of War" stuff.
peace,
jp
Righto
If there's any doubt looming over the cause of the dis-ease present in societies today then look no further than ourselves.
"The King is only fond of words, and cannot translate them into deeds." -Sun Tzu
Conspiracy Theories
Hello again Jennifer,
While I agree with you, and while the article you point to explains the basics, (and thank you for providing the link to it here) if it’s not the stuff of conspiracies, why did Washington encourage the hubris of Saaskashvili?
i.e.: “But Saaskashvili probably would not have acted as precipitously as he did if he had not been egged on by key figures in Washington who were all too happy to use him as a pawn in their geopolitical contest with Moscow.” (quote from the article)
If I’m left to conclude that either Washington is ignorant of the wide-ranging effects of it’s own policies, or quite aware of the effects of its state-craft, I’ll conclude the latter. In which case, if not a conspiracy between the US and Russia, this is a conspiracy among the players in Washington to create an October Surprise type of event. Just look at how the political polls have been favoring McCain in just the past week! All the administration has to do is ratchet up the conflict until McCain and Obama are 70% - 30%.
Furthermore, I don't think it was an accident, or a presumption on McCains part, that he responded to the crisis in the press even before the presidency did.
Please don’t think that the leaders of Iran and North Korea are the only masters of brinkmanship in the world.
Despite McCains efforts in the media to distance himself from Bush, Bush and Chaney need a president who will pardon them for their crimes, not prosecute them! Now THATS a conspiracy I can believe in.
"everything means something"
October Surprise
This nightmarish situation is pure speculation, but when you really look at Bush, do you see someone bent on creating a fascist regime or someone who would make a perfect alibi to let those truly pulling the strings to finally wrap their hands around the reigns of the "free world"? If you ask me, Dick Cheney has been far too quiet for far too long and it keeps me up at night thinking about it.
KGB as the Wildcard